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Calvin·Farel’s outlook for the upcoming year 2023 and the all too real risk of a global recession and further declining stock markets based on rising interest rates

Around the world, rapid economic recovery from the Covid shock unleashed as predicted by us correctly the largest wave of inflation we have seen since the early 1980s. In response, in the summer of 2021, central banks began raising interest rates. Brazil led surprisingly the way. In early 2022, the US Federal Reserve (Fed)...

Fiat currency backed Stablecoins as well as commercial bank digital money is NOT the future of the cryptocurrency revolution – Calvin • Farel’s upcoming gold backed cryptocurrency ‘Seed’ provides an alternative solution

As the world of decentralized finance (Defi) continues to grow, there is in our opinion much demand for a stable, transparent and less volatile digital currency fit for use in blockchain-based applications with near–real–time, peer-to-peer global settlement that can be used as a medium of exchange. However, most currently available cryptocurrencies are far too...

US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell must emulate the tactics of Paul Volcker’s fight against inflation as well as “stagflation” as history seem to repeat itself

US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell has expressed deep admiration for Paul Volcker, his legendary predecessor who defeated the high inflation that plagued The US economy from 1965 to 1982. Then, as now, Volcker was fighting more than a decade of loose monetary policy, combined with supply shocks stemming from geopolitical turmoil. But though...

The Venture Capital bubble is coming to its own terms

The venture capital bubble is facing a slow and messy unwinding. After a historic boom that puts even the tech bubble of the 1990s into the shade, and adjustment to more rational conditions has started. But structural factors and the psychology of private markets make it in our opinion hard to tell how long...

Looking at inflation – yesterday is not today!

Easy monetary policy, expansionary fiscal policy, rising inflation and then a surge in oil prices - we at Calvin • Farel have witnessed this before, therefore it is in our opinion very difficult to resist the temptation to draw parallels with the 1970s. We suggest, however, that the current circumstances are not a repeat...

Can Musk turn Twitter really into “a more honest” platform?

Please make no mistake: any time someone plops down 44 billion dollar without batting an eyelid to purchase an influential social media platform and take it private, it is going to cause concern - and in our opinion rightfully so. There is no point in pretending that Tesla chief executive Elon Musk’s acquisition of...

The long era of globalization might be ending

For the past three decades, companies and consumers benefited from cross-border connection that kept a steady supply of electronics, clothes, toys and other goods so abundant it helped prices stay low. But as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine continue to weigh on trade and business ties, that period of plenty appears in...

The Web3 movement has yet to take off

If the tech movement known as Web3 represents the internet’s next big gold mine, then why aren't we hearing more about the truly useful applications that will be built on this new platform. And why aren't more developers flocking to it to make their fortunes? Those questions hang in our opinion uncomfortably over...

The old playbook for inflation does no longer apply

Post-pandemic inflation in major developed economies has reached levels we have not had to wrestle with in two generations. Unsurprisingly, this has led to widespread calls for central banks to tighten monetary policy aggressively. Financial markets have quickly repriced their monetary policy outlook and markets now expect in our opinion at least seven incremental...

The time has come for central banks to reduce their balance sheets – Now

  • US
Central banks do not hesitate to expand their balance sheets when a crisis hits. They should also in our opinion not hesitate to reduce their balance sheets during recoveries-especially when inflation is high. In the past, the standard central bank playbook has been to wait for the recovery to solidify, then end any asset...

The time will come for a much-needed market correction for stocks

The extraordinary rally in markets, since their plunge in the very first stages of the coronavirus pandemic, was based in our opinion on two reasonable assumptions. One was that lockdowns would permanently change how we live our lives – benefiting, above all, the technology giants. The other was that central banks would be unable...

A New Year – A New Challenge – Regulating Low Earth Orbit

The first flight of Elon Musk’s Falcon 9 rocket back in 2010 launched a new space age. Since SpaceX developed its first reusable rocket, the costs of sending satellites into orbit have plummeted, opening up a multi-billion-dollar market for thousands of companies around the world. Arguably, Musk has done more than anyone since Neil...

India’s Reform Story becomes Reality

The withdrawal of the three pro-farmer bills by the Indian government, announced in a televised address to the nation by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has generated much debate on the trajectory of the economic reforms in India. While the small section of people agitating against the laws have welcomed it, a large section of...

Beware of the Known Unknown where Decentralized Finance (Defi) meets AI

“When change is easy, the need for it not be foreseen; when the need for change is apparent, change has become expensive, difficult and time consuming.” How can we act when dealing with known unknown? That dilemma is facing regulators today as they try to assess the impact of decentralized finance and artificial intelligence in the...

El Salvador Adopting Bitcoin as Legal Tender

Is it cool to adopt a cryptocurrency as a legal tender? El Salvador thinks so. This month, the small Central American nation became the first in the world to adopt Bitcoin as an official currency. Taxes may be paid in the cryptocurrency and merchants must accept it alongside the US dollar, the national currency since...

Digital Currency Is on Its way to Revolutionize Finance Cartels

This month the central banks of Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, and South Africa have started a new experiment: building a cross-border central bank digital currency system called “Project Dunbar”, under the auspices of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The idea is to let institutions in those countries use cryptocurrency and distributed Ledger technology (DCT) to...

China’s Techno Authoritarian Governance accelerates through the 4th Industrial Revolution with new legislation to become a Surveillance-Data Superpower

In recent weeks, Beijing has pushed through reams of regulations and policies designed to share up China's data security, reinforcing the control it exercises over huge volumes of data used in governing the country, boosting the economy and ordering people’s lives. Such moves in our opinion compromise a crucial part of the vision of Xi...

Portfolio Allocation in Times of Inflation

Inflation is rising. It would in our opinion be wise to prepare for it. Don’t get us wrong. We aren’t returning to the white-hot inflation rate of 1980, which reached 14.8 percent. But there is enough evidence to believe that a further upturn in inflation is coming. The question is how much inflation and for...

Big Techs of the United States feel the heat of a Russian crackdown

Russia is increasingly pressuring Google, Twitter and Facebook to fall in line with Kremlin internet crackdown orders or risk restrictions inside the country, as more governments around the world challenge the companies’ principles on online freedom. Russia’s internet regulator, Roskomnadzor, recently stepped up its demands for the American companies to remove online content that it...

Inflation

While China may not play the role it did in the last period when commodity price surged, predictions of another supercycle are in our opinion not without foundation; attempts to reduce advanced economics’ fossil fuel emissions and rising US infrastructure spending will mean more demand for certain metals and other materials-copper, as well as...

Tech Wars are becoming the titanic struggle for supremacy

Technology has turned geopolitical. The US has blocked semiconductor exports to China. In turn, China has looked to limit US access to rare earth minerals, crucial to the manufacture of many tech products. Several countries have banned China’s Huawei from running their 5G telecommunications networks. India has also banned the Chinese-owned viral social media...

Europe’s Digital Economy needs less Bureaucracy and more Funding

Many competing motives are at work when the EU ramps up its determination to assert control over US Internet giants. One is anger that they abuse their market dominance. Another is fear that they threaten the health of Europe's democracies. But as often as not, the strongest motivation is the feeling that Europe is...

Let’s Take Bitcoin as a Short Case Study for Cryptocurrencies!

Bitcoin's price is bouncing around 50,000 US-Dollar giving it an aggregate value of about 1 trillion US-Dollar. The digital currency is increasingly part of the modern financial landscape. The venerable BNY Mellon in now handling Bitcoin, MasterCard is integrating it into its US payments systems and Tesla bought 1.5 billion Dollar of Bitcoin for...

Covid – 19: A Summary of Government Support and Global Inequality

The COVID-19 pandemic is still accelerating in many countries and uncertainty is unusually high. Decisive government actions are necessary to ensure swift and extensive vaccine roll-outs, protect the most vulnerable households and otherwise viable firms, and foster a durable and inclusive recovery. Many countries have continued to support people and firms amid the resurgence...

What Mark Zuckerberg and Tim Cook should have learned from Rockefeller

Big government is finally taking on Big Tech. In the most momentous antitrust lawsuit in a generation, The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) accused Mark Zuckerberg's Facebook of unfair competition and asked a federal court to break it up. The EU proposed sweeping new rules forcing big technology companies to take more responsibility for...

America’s Cryptocurrency Market is in Limbo

Investors in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a phenomenal run but they are now worried that Janet Yellen's arrival as US Treasury secretary may herald a new era of hostility from regulators and central banks towards what boosters call “libertarian” forms of digital money. In her last press conference as chair of the...

Jobs of Tomorrow – The A.I. Revolution is Coming

Automation, robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies have been taking over routine tasks for years. The COVID-19 pandemic, has rapidly increased that trend, driven by the triple necessities of increased productivity, lower costs and humans safely. Suddenly, human contact is both undesirable and more longed for than ever. Delivery companies, plumbers and even some...

The Fed Party Bonanza – The Only Game in Town

For Bitcoin investors, last year was a bonanza. The cryptocurrency started January 2020 at 7.194 dollar and surged above 34.000 dollar at the end of last year - a more than 360% annual return. Courtesy of the US Federal Reserve, asset buyers in general have had a stellar pandemic. Whether it was US treasuries...

European banks need to focus on cost-cuts rather than cross-border transactions

The calls for cross-border European banking transactions are mounting again. Not for the first time, we are being told that consolidation of international banking groups will “fix” the problems faced by the industry, this time those caused by the pandemic. Over the years, various transaction combinations of UniCredit, Société Générale or Commerzbank have been touted,...

Barclays’ Credit Card Business joins hands with Amazon by offering seamless customized shopping through AI in Germany

Last month Barclays’ credit card business struck a deal with Amazon to offer seamless customized shopping and payment services in Germany. The announcement drew little attention amid the US election, pandemic pain - and the cancellation of Ant Financial’s putative 37 billion US-Dollar initial public offering (IPO). But investors and regulators should pay attention....

Overestimating the World Economy Covid Recovery

The world economy has risen from the depths of the initial Covid-19 plunge. But the recovery has been tepid, uneven, and fragile - and in our opinion is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future and for 2021. Start with the good news. World merchandise trade has rebounded strongly, consistent with indications of a...

Act now to prevent a tragic economy ending – apocalypse is otherwise coming for small businesses; the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission need to act!

The next six months could witness one of the biggest consolidations of corporate power in the United States and around the world in almost a century, yet a variety of legal and economic factors may leave the federal governments unable to stop it. The International Labour Organization estimates the world will lose working hours equivalent...