US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell must emulate the tactics of Paul Volcker’s fight against inflation as well as “stagflation” as history seem to repeat itself

US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell has expressed deep admiration for Paul Volcker, his legendary predecessor who defeated the high inflation that plagued The US economy from 1965 to 1982. Then, as now, Volcker was fighting more than a decade of loose monetary policy, combined with supply shocks stemming from geopolitical turmoil. But though...

The Venture Capital bubble is coming to its own terms

The venture capital bubble is facing a slow and messy unwinding. After a historic boom that puts even the tech bubble of the 1990s into the shade, and adjustment to more rational conditions has started. But structural factors and the psychology of private markets make it in our opinion hard to tell how long...

Looking at inflation – yesterday is not today!

Easy monetary policy, expansionary fiscal policy, rising inflation and then a surge in oil prices - we at Calvin • Farel have witnessed this before, therefore it is in our opinion very difficult to resist the temptation to draw parallels with the 1970s. We suggest, however, that the current circumstances are not a repeat...

The long era of globalization might be ending

For the past three decades, companies and consumers benefited from cross-border connection that kept a steady supply of electronics, clothes, toys and other goods so abundant it helped prices stay low. But as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine continue to weigh on trade and business ties, that period of plenty appears in...

The time will come for a much-needed market correction for stocks

The extraordinary rally in markets, since their plunge in the very first stages of the coronavirus pandemic, was based in our opinion on two reasonable assumptions. One was that lockdowns would permanently change how we live our lives – benefiting, above all, the technology giants. The other was that central banks would be unable...

China’s Techno Authoritarian Governance accelerates through the 4th Industrial Revolution with new legislation to become a Surveillance-Data Superpower

In recent weeks, Beijing has pushed through reams of regulations and policies designed to share up China's data security, reinforcing the control it exercises over huge volumes of data used in governing the country, boosting the economy and ordering people’s lives. Such moves in our opinion compromise a crucial part of the vision of Xi...

Portfolio Allocation in Times of Inflation

Inflation is rising. It would in our opinion be wise to prepare for it. Don’t get us wrong. We aren’t returning to the white-hot inflation rate of 1980, which reached 14.8 percent. But there is enough evidence to believe that a further upturn in inflation is coming. The question is how much inflation and for...

Big Techs of the United States feel the heat of a Russian crackdown

Russia is increasingly pressuring Google, Twitter and Facebook to fall in line with Kremlin internet crackdown orders or risk restrictions inside the country, as more governments around the world challenge the companies’ principles on online freedom. Russia’s internet regulator, Roskomnadzor, recently stepped up its demands for the American companies to remove online content that it...

Europe’s Digital Economy needs less Bureaucracy and more Funding

Many competing motives are at work when the EU ramps up its determination to assert control over US Internet giants. One is anger that they abuse their market dominance. Another is fear that they threaten the health of Europe's democracies. But as often as not, the strongest motivation is the feeling that Europe is...

Covid – 19: A Summary of Government Support and Global Inequality

The COVID-19 pandemic is still accelerating in many countries and uncertainty is unusually high. Decisive government actions are necessary to ensure swift and extensive vaccine roll-outs, protect the most vulnerable households and otherwise viable firms, and foster a durable and inclusive recovery. Many countries have continued to support people and firms amid the resurgence...

What Mark Zuckerberg and Tim Cook should have learned from Rockefeller

Big government is finally taking on Big Tech. In the most momentous antitrust lawsuit in a generation, The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) accused Mark Zuckerberg's Facebook of unfair competition and asked a federal court to break it up. The EU proposed sweeping new rules forcing big technology companies to take more responsibility for...

The Fed Party Bonanza – The Only Game in Town

For Bitcoin investors, last year was a bonanza. The cryptocurrency started January 2020 at 7.194 dollar and surged above 34.000 dollar at the end of last year - a more than 360% annual return. Courtesy of the US Federal Reserve, asset buyers in general have had a stellar pandemic. Whether it was US treasuries...

Overestimating the World Economy Covid Recovery

The world economy has risen from the depths of the initial Covid-19 plunge. But the recovery has been tepid, uneven, and fragile - and in our opinion is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future and for 2021. Start with the good news. World merchandise trade has rebounded strongly, consistent with indications of a...

Act now to prevent a tragic economy ending – apocalypse is otherwise coming for small businesses; the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission need to act!

The next six months could witness one of the biggest consolidations of corporate power in the United States and around the world in almost a century, yet a variety of legal and economic factors may leave the federal governments unable to stop it. The International Labour Organization estimates the world will lose working hours equivalent...

Which presidential candidate is the stock market looking for?

For months the S&P 500 rose this year - despite a deadly pandemic, the resulting economic devastation and the rise of a Democratic Party increasingly sympathetic to democratic socialism. Then, last month, with Joe Biden doing well in the polls, stock prices finally stumbled. It polls continue to point to a Biden victory in the...

Let’s talk about the oil price crash

The oil price crash of March 2020 will globally in our opinion not last for too long. As in 2014, when the oil price dropped below 50 US-Dollar from 110 US-Dollar in a few weeks, this one will trigger a temporary collapse of the US shale industry. Unless the coronavirus outbreak causes Armageddon, cheap...

Central Banks need a new pandora box for financial markets

The list of reasons that the US Federal Reserve shouldn’t have cut interest rates is long. Lower rates in our opinion will do nothing to address the root cause of potential economic distress, namely supply disruptions and halted economic activity because of the coronavirus. It comes as the Fed is already low on firepower...

India’s fiscal budget needs to be improved to prevent a further slowdown

The Indian middle class will count a few rupees, bank deposits will get a little security, and privatization enthusiasts will chew on a new player in the market. But other than high-sounding grandiose statements, Indian Budget 2020 has delivered no expectations. This was preordained, of course. If anyone is feeling disappointed, clearly that person...